
Newsletter
11
June
1999
Predictions for the 21st Century by Arthur C. Clarke
Arthur
C. Clarke began writing science fiction in the 1930s. Those familiar with his work, and of
notable others such as Isaac Asimov, will know that time and again ideas and elements
within their stories have in fact become reality on Earth. For example Asimov coined the
word robot and was the first to imagine a pocket calculator. In
this months newsletter I have reprinted an article published in the UK just a few
weeks ago - Sir Arthur C. Clarkes predictions for the 21st
Century....
DESPITE all claims to
the contrary, no-one can predict the future, and I have always resisted all attempts to
label me a "prophet": I prefer "extrapolator". What I have tried to
do, at least in my non-fiction, is outline possible "futures" while pointing out
that totally unexpected inventions or events can make any forecasts absurd after a very
few years.
The classic example is
the statement in the late 1940s by the then chairman of IBM that the world market for
computers was about five (or was it six?).
But perhaps I'm in no
position to criticise Thomas Watson Snr. In Transit of Earth (1971), I put the
first Mars landing in 1994: now we'll be lucky if we make it by 2010. On the other hand,
when Prelude To Space was published in 1951,
I thought I was being wildly optimistic by suggesting a moon mission in 1978. Neil
and Buzz beat me by almost a decade.
Still, I take a modest
pride in the fact that communications satellites are placed exactly where I suggested in
1945, and that the name "Clarke Orbit" is now often used, if only because it's
easier to say than "geostationary orbit". And the chapter "The Century
Syndrome", in my 1990 novel The Ghost From The Grand Banks, may well have been
the first account, outside the technical literature, of the now-dreaded millennium bug,
its cause and its cure.
Even so, the chronology
that follows should be given with a health warning. Some of the events listed
(particularly the space missions) are already scheduled, and will occur on the actual
dates given; I believe all the other events could happen, although several, I hope, will
not. I have omitted many interesting and all-too-possible disasters, because optimism
about the future is always desirable.
Check me for accuracy -
on December 31, 2100:
2001 - Cassini spaceprobe
(launched October 1997; arrived Saturn July 2000) begins exploration of the planet's moons
and rings.
Galileo probe (launched
October 1989) continues surveying Jupiter and its moons.
Life beneath the ice-covered
oceans of Europa appears increasingly likely.
2002 - The first commercial
device producing clean, safe power by low-temperature nuclear reactions goes on the
market, heralding the end of the fossil-fuel age. Economic and geopolitical earthquakes
follow.
2003 - The motor industry is
given five years to replace all fuel-burning engines with the new energy device.
NASA's robot Mars
Surveyor (carrying Lander and Rover) is launched.
| 2004 - First publicly admitted
human clone. 2005 - First sample launched
back to Earth by Mars Surveyor.
2006 - Last coal mine closed.
2007 - NASA Next Space
Telescope (successor to the Hubble) launched.
2008 - To mark what would have
been his 80th birthday, on July 26, film director Stanley Kubrick, who made 2001: A Space
Odyssey, is posthumously awarded a special Oscar for Lifetime Achievement.
2009 - A city in a third world
country is devastated by the accidental explosion of an A-bomb in its armoury. After a
brief debate in the UN, all nuclear weapons are destroyed.
2010 - The first quantum
generators (tapping space energy) are developed. Available in portable and household units
from a few kilowatts upwards, they can produce
electricity indefinitely. Central power stations close down; the age of pylons ends as grid systems are dismantled.
Electronic monitoring virtually removes professional criminals from society.
2011 - Largest living creature
filmed: a 75-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench.
By a curious coincidence,
later that year even larger marine creatures are discovered when the first robot probes
drill through the ice of Europa and an entire new biota is revealed. |
 |
2012 - Aerospace-planes enter
service.
2013 - Despite the
understandable apprehensions of Buckingham Palace, Prince Harry becomes the first member
of the Royal Family to fly in space.
2014 - Construction of Hilton
Orbiter Hotel begins, by assembling and converting the giant shuttle tanks which had
previously been allowed to fall back to Earth.
 |
2015 - An inevitable
by-product of the quantum generator is the complete control of matter at the atomic level.
Thus the old dream of alchemy is realised on
a commercial scale, often with surprising results. Within a few years, since they are more
useful, lead and copper cost twice as much as gold.
2016 - All existing currencies
are abolished. The megawatt-hour becomes the unit of exchange.
2017 - December 16. On his 100th
birthday, Sir Arthur C Clarke is one of the first guests of the Hilton Orbiter
2018 - A major meteor impact
occurs on the North Polar icecap. There is no loss of
life, but the resulting tsunamis cause major damage along the coasts of Greenland and
Canada. The long-discussed "Project Spaceguard", to identify and deflect any
potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, is activated. |
2020 - Artificial intelligence (AI)
reaches the human level. From now outwards there are two intelligent species on Earth, one
evolving far more rapidly than biology would ever permit. Interstellar probes carrying AIs
are launched towards the nearer stars.
2021 - Humans land on Mars - and
have some unpleasant surprises.
2023 - Dinosaur facsimiles are
cloned from computer-generated DNA. Disney's "Triassic Zoo" opens in Florida.
Despite some unfortunate initial accidents, mini-raptors start replacing guard dogs.
2024 - Infra-red signals are
detected coming from the centre of the galaxy. They are the product of a technologically
advanced civilisation but attempts to decipher them fail.
2025 - Neurological research
leads to an understanding of all the senses and direct inputs become possible, by-passing
eyes, ears, etc. The result is the metal "braincap" of which the 20th century's
Walkman was a primitive precursor. Anyone wearing this helmet, fitting tightly over the
skull, can enter a whole universe of
experience, real or imaginary - and even merge in real-time with other minds. |
 |
2040 - The "Universal
Replicator", based on nano-technology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can
be created - given the raw material and the appropriate information matrix. Diamonds or
gourmet meals can be made from dirt. As a result, agriculture and industry are phased out,
ending that recent invention in human history - work! There is an explosion in arts,
entertainment and education. Hunter-gathering societies are deliberately recreated; huge
areas of the planet, no longer needed for food production, are allowed to revert to their
original state.
2045 - The totally
self-contained, recycling, mobile home (envisaged almost a century earlier by Buckminster
Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed for food synthesis is obtained by
extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
2050 - "Escape from
Utopia". Bored by life in this peaceful and unexciting era, millions decide to use
cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search
of adventure. Vast "hibernacula" are established in the Antarctic
and in the regions of perpetual night at the lunar poles.
2057 - October 4. Centennial
of Sputnik 1. The dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans not only on Earth, but on
the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan - and in orbit round Venus, Neptune and Pluto.
2061 - The return of Halley's
Comet; first landing on nucleus by humans. The sensational discovery of both dormant and
active life-forms vindicates Hoyle and Wickramasinghe's century-old hypothesis that life
is omnipresent throughout space.
2090 - Large-scale burning of
fossil fuels is resumed to replace the carbon dioxide "mined" from the air and,
hopefully, to postpone the next ice age by promoting global warming.
2095 - "The development of
a true "space drive" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of
space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. The
first human explorers set off to nearby star systems that robot probes have already found
promising.
2100 - History begins . . .
(c) Arthur C. Clarke 1999 |
 |


All enquiries:
Mario Di Maggio Tel: 300 6228 (w)
or 082 829 7645 or
Mario Di Maggio
Viewing evening enquiries: Raymond
Field Tel: 309 4126 (w) or
465 7188 (h)
|
Viewing Evenings
at Marist Bros. College* |
Special Events |
Meetings - 7:00PM
at
University of Natal* |
July
1999 |
First clear night of either:
Fri 9th or
Sat 10th or
Fri 16th or
Sat 17th at 18h30 |
7:00PM, Wednesday 14th
July, at the Durban Natural Science Museum:
Astronomy in Southern African Rock
Art -
illustrated presentation by Natural
Science Museum Research Associate
Mr Bert Woodhouse.
Admittance FREE. All welcome. |
No meetings due to University vacation |
Aug
1999 |
First clear night of either:
Fri 6th or
Sat 7th or
Fri 13th or
Sat 14th at 18h30 |
- There should be good meteor
viewing during the middle of August, with the North Delta Aquarids (peaking on the
12th) and the North Iota Aquarids (peaking on the 20th) causing enhanced meteor rates for
more than a week.
- On Wednesday August 11 a major
total eclipse of the Sun will take place over Europe, the Mideast, and southwest Asia.
It will not be visible from southern Africa, and will be the last total solar eclipse of
this Millennium. |
Thursday 19th August:
Solar Eclipses - including a
report back from individuals who saw the total eclipse in Turkey and Europe. |
Sept
1999 |
First clear night of either:
Fri 10th or
Sat 11th or
Fri 17th or
Sat 18th at 18h30 |
Planet Venus is at its brightest
this month - visible even during the day!
To find it, place yourself in the shadow
of a building, and look due north high up in the sky. From Durban, Venus will be
highest in the north at about 10:30AM (early Sept) to 9:15AM (late Sept).
On the 7thSeptember the
crescent moon will be a bit to the left of Venus.
Scan the sky patiently for a minute or
two, and you are bound to see Venus. |
Thur 2nd Sept: to be announced
Thur 16th Sept: to be announced
Thur 30th Sept: to be announced
For more information: Sarah Buchner
- 260 1402 / buchner@scifs1.und.ac.za |
*Directions to Marist
Brothers College: travel south along Ridge Road from Tollgate towards Entabeni
Hospital. Just after the hospital turn right into Glenwood Drive, which is an L-shaped
road. At the end of the road you will see Marist Brothers College in front of you. Turn
left into the school car park. |
*Directions to lecture room
S4, Science Block, University of Natal: travel to the top of Francois Road, turn right
into the University private road. Directly after boom gate turn left and the Science Block
is on the right. |

|