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Newsletter 11                                        June 1999

Predictions for the 21st Century by Arthur C. Clarke

Arthur C. Clarke began writing science fiction in the 1930s. Those familiar with his work, and of notable others such as Isaac Asimov, will know that time and again ideas and elements within their stories have in fact become reality on Earth. For example Asimov coined the word “robot” and was the first to imagine a ‘pocket calculator’. In this month’s newsletter I have reprinted an article published in the UK just a few weeks ago -
Sir Arthur C. Clarke’s predictions for the 21st Century....
 

“DESPITE all claims to the contrary, no-one can predict the future, and I have always resisted all attempts to label me a "prophet": I prefer "extrapolator". What I have tried to do, at least in my non-fiction, is outline possible "futures" while pointing out that totally unexpected inventions or events can make any forecasts absurd after a very few years.

 The classic example is the statement in the late 1940s by the then chairman of IBM that the world market for computers was about five (or was it six?).

 But perhaps I'm in no position to criticise Thomas Watson Snr. In Transit of Earth (1971), I put the first Mars landing in 1994: now we'll be lucky if we make it by 2010. On the other hand, when Prelude To Space was published in 1951,  I thought I was being wildly optimistic by suggesting a moon mission in 1978. Neil and Buzz beat me by almost a decade.

 Still, I take a modest pride in the fact that communications satellites are placed exactly where I suggested in 1945, and that the name "Clarke Orbit" is now often used, if only because it's easier to say than "geostationary orbit". And the chapter "The Century Syndrome", in my 1990 novel The Ghost From The Grand Banks, may well have been the first account, outside the technical literature, of the now-dreaded millennium bug, its cause and its cure.

 Even so, the chronology that follows should be given with a health warning. Some of the events listed (particularly the space missions) are already scheduled, and will occur on the actual dates given; I believe all the other events could happen, although several, I hope, will not. I have omitted many interesting and all-too-possible disasters, because optimism about the future is always desirable.

 Check me for accuracy - on December 31, 2100:

 2001 - Cassini spaceprobe (launched October 1997; arrived Saturn July 2000) begins exploration of the planet's moons and rings.

 Galileo probe (launched October 1989) continues surveying Jupiter and its moons.

Life beneath the ice-covered oceans of Europa appears increasingly likely.

 2002 - The first commercial device producing clean, safe power by low-temperature nuclear reactions goes on the market, heralding the end of the fossil-fuel age. Economic and geopolitical earthquakes follow.

 2003 - The motor industry is given five years to replace all fuel-burning engines with the new energy device.

 NASA's robot Mars Surveyor (carrying Lander and Rover) is launched.

2004 - First publicly admitted human clone.

2005 - First sample launched back to Earth by Mars Surveyor.

2006 - Last coal mine closed.

2007 - NASA Next Space Telescope (successor to the Hubble) launched.

2008 - To mark what would have been his 80th birthday, on July 26, film director Stanley Kubrick, who made 2001: A Space Odyssey, is posthumously awarded a special Oscar for Lifetime Achievement.

 2009 - A city in a third world country is devastated by the accidental explosion of an A-bomb in its armoury. After a brief debate in the UN, all nuclear weapons are destroyed.

 2010 - The first quantum generators (tapping space energy) are developed. Available in portable and household units from a few kilowatts upwards, they can  produce electricity indefinitely. Central power stations close down; the age of  pylons ends as grid systems are dismantled. Electronic monitoring virtually removes professional criminals from society.

2011 - Largest living creature filmed: a 75-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench.

By a curious coincidence, later that year even larger marine creatures are discovered when the first robot probes drill through the ice of Europa and an entire new biota is revealed.

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 2012 - Aerospace-planes enter service.

 2013 - Despite the understandable apprehensions of Buckingham Palace, Prince Harry becomes the first member of the Royal Family to fly in space.

 2014 - Construction of Hilton Orbiter Hotel begins, by assembling and converting the giant shuttle tanks which had previously been allowed to fall back to Earth. 

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2015 - An inevitable by-product of the quantum generator is the complete control of matter at the atomic level. Thus the old dream of alchemy is realised  on a commercial scale, often with surprising results. Within a few years, since they are more useful, lead and copper cost twice as much as gold.

 2016 - All existing currencies are abolished. The megawatt-hour becomes the unit of exchange.

 2017 - December 16. On his 100th birthday, Sir Arthur C Clarke is one of the first guests of the Hilton Orbiter

2018 - A major meteor impact occurs on the North Polar icecap. There is no loss  of life, but the resulting tsunamis cause major damage along the coasts of Greenland and Canada. The long-discussed "Project Spaceguard", to identify and deflect any potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, is activated.

2020 - Artificial intelligence (AI) reaches the human level. From now outwards there are two intelligent species on Earth, one evolving far more rapidly than biology would ever permit. Interstellar probes carrying AIs are launched towards the nearer stars.

2021 - Humans land on Mars - and have some unpleasant surprises.

 2023 - Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA. Disney's "Triassic Zoo" opens in Florida. Despite some unfortunate initial accidents, mini-raptors start replacing guard dogs.

2024 - Infra-red signals are detected coming from the centre of the galaxy. They are the product of a technologically advanced civilisation but attempts to decipher them fail.

 2025 - Neurological research leads to an understanding of all the senses and direct inputs become possible, by-passing eyes, ears, etc. The result is the metal "braincap" of which the 20th century's Walkman was a primitive precursor. Anyone wearing this helmet, fitting tightly over the skull, can enter a whole  universe of experience, real or imaginary - and even merge in real-time with other minds.

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 2040 - The "Universal Replicator", based on nano-technology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the raw material and the appropriate information matrix. Diamonds or gourmet meals can be made from dirt. As a result, agriculture and industry are phased out, ending that recent invention in human history - work! There is an explosion in arts, entertainment and education. Hunter-gathering societies are deliberately recreated; huge areas of the planet, no longer needed for food production, are allowed to revert to their original state.

 2045 - The totally self-contained, recycling, mobile home (envisaged almost a century earlier by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed for food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

 2050 - "Escape from Utopia". Bored by life in this peaceful and unexciting era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search   of adventure. Vast "hibernacula" are established in the Antarctic and in the regions of perpetual night at the lunar poles.

 2057 - October 4. Centennial of Sputnik 1. The dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans not only on Earth, but on the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan - and in orbit round Venus, Neptune and Pluto.

 2061 - The return of Halley's Comet; first landing on nucleus by humans. The sensational discovery of both dormant and active life-forms vindicates Hoyle and Wickramasinghe's century-old hypothesis that life is omnipresent throughout space.

 2090 - Large-scale burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace the carbon dioxide "mined" from the air and, hopefully, to postpone the next ice age by promoting global warming.

2095 - "The development of a true "space drive" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. The first human explorers set off to nearby star systems that robot probes have already found promising.

 2100 - History begins . . .

 

(c) Arthur C. Clarke 1999

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All enquiries:                     Mario Di Maggio Tel: 300 6228 (w)    or   082 829 7645   or                                                Mario Di Maggio                                                                       

        Viewing evening enquiries:   Raymond Field     Tel: 309 4126 (w)    or    465 7188 (h)                               

 

 

 

Viewing Evenings

at Marist Bros. College*

 

Special Events

 

Meetings - 7:00PM

 at University of Natal*

 

July

1999

 

First clear night of either:

Fri 9th or

Sat 10th or

Fri 16th  or

Sat 17th         at 18h30

 

7:00PM, Wednesday 14th July,  at the Durban Natural Science Museum:

 

“Astronomy in Southern African Rock Art” -

illustrated presentation by Natural Science Museum Research Associate

Mr Bert Woodhouse.

Admittance FREE. All welcome.

 

No meetings due to University vacation

 

Aug

1999

 

First clear night of either:

Fri 6th or

Sat 7th or

Fri 13th  or

Sat 14th         at 18h30

 

- There should be good meteor viewing during the middle of August, with the North Delta Aquarids (peaking on the 12th) and the North Iota Aquarids (peaking on the 20th) causing enhanced meteor rates for more than a week.

- On Wednesday August 11 a major total eclipse of the Sun will take place over Europe, the Mideast, and southwest Asia. It will not be visible from southern Africa, and will be the last total solar eclipse of this Millennium.

 

Thursday 19th August:

Solar Eclipses - including a report back from individuals who saw the total eclipse in Turkey and Europe.

 

Sept

1999

 

First clear night of either:

Fri 10th or

Sat 11th or

Fri 17th  or

Sat 18th         at 18h30

 

Planet Venus is at its brightest this month - visible even during the day!

To find it, place yourself in the shadow of a building, and look due north high up in the sky. From Durban, Venus will be highest in the north at about 10:30AM (early Sept) to 9:15AM (late Sept).

On the 7thSeptember the crescent moon will be a bit to the left of Venus.

Scan the sky patiently for a minute or two, and you are bound to see Venus.

 

Thur 2nd Sept: to be announced

Thur 16th Sept: to be announced

Thur 30th Sept: to be announced

For more information: Sarah Buchner - 260 1402 / buchner@scifs1.und.ac.za

 

*Directions to Marist Brothers College: travel south along Ridge Road from Tollgate towards Entabeni Hospital. Just after the hospital turn right into Glenwood Drive, which is an L-shaped road. At the end of the road you will see Marist Brothers College in front of you. Turn left into the school car park.

 

*Directions to lecture room S4, Science Block, University of Natal: travel to the top of Francois Road, turn right into the University private road. Directly after boom gate turn left and the Science Block is on the right.

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